So we’ve all experienced and enjoyed all of this summer weather. Last weekend was a great time to get outside and enjoy Memorial Day Weekend. This week has been a little rough with thunderstorms and occasional showers but still has been pretty nice minus all the humidity. Well, next week doesn’t look too hot…literally. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has gone negative again and if you don’t know what NAO means, in very simple terms, it’s a big weather driver for us New Englanders. It relates the differences of pressure in the Atlantic Ocean and that impacts how the winds operate with our weather and weather patterns. What does all the mean? next week, we enter a blocking pattern called an omega block. Bacially both the east coast and the west coast will cloudy, cool, and rainy weather while the middle of the country will be very warm and dry. Here’s a picture for ya.

So that’s what we will see for next week starting on Saturday where it will just be cool, rainy and cloudy, but that’s from a different system. Sunday will be decent with sun and clouds off and on nothing too exciting. But starting Monday, we will start to see this weather pattern slide in. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with each other but the ECMWF only goes out 240 hours which only brings us into next Saturday June 8th. Even out till there, both models are in pretty good agreement with each other. The GFS has been consistent with its model runs and if it verifies, we can start to see the breakdown of the block by Tuesday. Models sometimes have a hard time figuring out the time of the breakdown of blocking patterns so we might have to keep an eye out on the water vapor to see what actually shows up.

If we believe the GFS then another big ridge will build over us the week after this upcoming week bringing in warm and summer like temperatures.

So no worries, summer’s coming back…we hope.

Peace,

Michael

Yes, it’s one of those rainy days, or rainy couple of days which we all just LOVE. I know, trust me, all I want to do is open my pool and enjoy the sun and warm temperatures, but we do need the rain. We’re still in a ~ -6in deficit for precipitation for the year, so we do need it. Don’t worry summer will return soon. However for this week, we’ll continue to see this unsettled weather pattern as that poor excuse for a tropical storm we’re calling Alberto will sit off the coast of the Carolina’s and then eventually fizzle out. According to the NWS Alberto is moving East at 8MPH. Not surprising because the jet stream is very weak there, so there is nothing really to move the storm, it’s almost like it’s a cut off low. Speaking of cut off low’s, if there is ever a season for them, its this year. As Alberto dies out, a developing low over the south-west area near Tennessee will help kick out the remnants of Alberto. Then that system will become cut off from the jet stream and sit in the south of a few days until it slowly makes its way up towards New England. As we will be on the positive vort advection side of this low, we will see on and off showers, t-storms, and sunshine throughout the week where “who will get what and when” will be hard to forecast. Yes I know, I sound like a typical Meteorologist but to get a taste of what I’m dealing with here, here’s a picture of a 4km resolution WRF/NMM model. It’s high resolution which means we can get a more accurate idea of showers and such.

This is for Tuesday 5/22 at 2pm. Very scattered showers in the area so it will be hard to forecast. But after that, both GFS and ECMWF agree on a big developing high pressure system in the south that will bring warm air and sunny skies to the N.E region as a ridge builds over us, keeping all the rainy weather away. This means we should have clear skies with temperatures ranging in the mid 70’s to low 80’s with cooler temperatures at the coast right in place for the weekend. Both models are showing differences in how long that ridge will last which will affect our weather for next week.

Next week’s weather blog I’m still working on, I’ll post another blog after the weekend.

Enjoy

Michael

It’s funny about New England you know. It seems that we have a long winter, a few spring like days and then BAM summer. Even though this winter wasn’t really that cold at all, it was very dry. Plus the positive NAO that stayed positive all winter didnt really help the snow chances either. So then we got to March when we had days in the 90’s, and then a cool and wet April and so far in May. Well if you’re looking to see why, well wouldn’t you know it, we dipped into a negative NAO. However, the consensus of the model runs are looking into a positive NAO pattern again.

But, if you read my last post, we had a Blocking High over the Atlantic that was keeping the groups of cutoff low’s in our area but that however has gone away, and now we are left with a more summer like pattern. This weekend will be B-E-A-UTIFUL with high’s in the upper 70’s to low 80’s with clear skies.

Now the question of what’s our summer going to be like. I’m not big on seasonal forecasting, but, I do think that we will have a normal summer. However, I do think we will see more rain than other summers just because of the lack of precip that we had this past winter, I think Mother Nature has to make up for it somehow. Meaning to say, a day here and there of “good rain” (.50-1.00in) and then back to sunny days and so on.

Michael

Let me say, that this Spring has already been a whole lot better than last Spring, where it took until about June to warm up into seasonable temperatures. It seemed like with all the snow last year, we didn’t have a Spring but more of a Winter straight into summer.

Already this year we have had a way above average Spring season where we have had multiple days of 70, 80, and even 90 degree temperatures. After the much needed ~ 3 inches of rain that fell over the weekend you may be wondering, “where’s the summer weather…again?” Well, it’s there, just to our south. A big cut off low pressure system to the north of us has been spinning on its self for a while now where that’s been the main weather pattern for a while now.

Well, what is causing this you might ask. Out in the Atlantic, we have a blocking high (circled in blue) pressure system that’s helping maintain the trough in the jet stream over New England which then is causing that cut off low circled in red to just sit there and keep spinning. Eventually, that blocking high will go away, which will then allow the jet stream to even out and help move the cut off low out to sea which will help bring back those summer temperatures.

As for the rest of the week, expect sun and clouds and occasional showers throughout the week as little shortwave vorticities will develop in the trough over New England and spawn clouds and showers, nothing big. If you’re looking for the next warm up, you’re going to have to wait a little bit. How long? Not that much longer, give it another week or so. The way these GEFS ensembles are looking, our warm up could happen the first week of May as we could be under a huge ridge where all that warm air is. If these verify, then the warmth could be around for good. 

Peace!